The Economy 
Container shipping has faced its most challenging quarter in two decades, with freight rates plummeting by 28%, according to a report from the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO).
Shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen of BIMCO revealed that the average rates for Chinese exports have dropped by 28% since the start of the year. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), which tracks spot freight rates, fell dramatically from 1,548 points at the beginning of the year to 1,112 points by the end of Q1, marking a 46% decline. This drop represents the steepest quarterly loss since the index was introduced in 2009.
Historically, the CCFI had only decreased by more than 10% in the first quarter four times since 2006, with an average decline of just 2%. The second worst performance was recorded in 2023, with a 24% drop in rates during the same period.
Despite a positive start to the year, with East and Southeast Asia export volumes increasing by 20% year-on-year in January, shipping rates continued to fall. This decline was compounded by the detouring of ships around the Cape of Good Hope, which absorbed an additional 10-12% of fleet capacity.
Among the major East-West trade routes, the biggest rate drops occurred on routes to Europe and the Mediterranean, which saw declines of 33% and 32%, respectively. North-South traffic fared even worse, with rates to South Africa, Australia/New Zealand, South America, and West Africa dropping by 40%, 38%, 35%, and 26%, respectively. The only exception to this downward trend was trade between China and Japan.
Despite these significant losses, average rates at the end of the first quarter were only 8% lower than the same period last year, and still 39% higher than in 2019.
However, BIMCO warns that the global shipping market faces considerable uncertainty, especially with the introduction of new U.S. import tariffs under President Donald Trump and retaliatory actions from U.S. trading partners. These developments could severely impact global economic growth predicts that container shipping rates could remain low or continue to fall. The shipping fleet is expected to grow by 5.4% in 2025, which, combined with potential declines in trade volumes and the return of ships to regular routes through the Red Sea, could lead to rate levels comparable to those seen in 2019, according to Rasmussen.
