The Economy 
The Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) has stated that the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly known as petrol, could be reduced to N350 per litre if global crude oil prices fall to $50 per barrel.
However, CORAN warned that despite the ongoing decline in crude prices, petrol costs in Nigeria may continue to rise unless the Federal Government reinstates the naira-for-crude policy.
Crude oil prices have plunged in recent days, with Brent dropping to $65 per barrel for the first time since 2021. The fall followed a combination of factors including increased supply from OPEC+ and trade tensions sparked by U.S. tariffs and China’s retaliatory measures. U.S. West Texas Intermediate also dropped significantly, ending at $61.99 per barrel.
Despite the drop in crude prices and a slight reduction in landing costs — from N885 to N865 per litre — the local fuel market has not responded positively. Instead, ex-depot prices have risen, with petrol now selling at around N900 per litre in Lagos.
In an interview with The Punch, CORAN’s Publicity Secretary, Eche Idoko, expressed concern over the rising cost of petrol despite favorable global market conditions. He blamed the situation on the falling naira, middlemen, and the potential discontinuation of the naira-for-crude exchange scheme.
Idoko emphasized that local refining once brought prices down to around N700 per litre and had the potential to reduce them further to N350 if crude oil prices hit $50 per barrel. He accused intermediaries—who act as agents between Nigerian buyers and international traders—of working against local refining efforts for personal gain.
“These middlemen do not carry any risk or investment; they simply facilitate transactions and profit at the expense of the public,” he said. “They resist policies like naira-for-crude because it threatens their business model.”
He further argued that allowing local refineries to buy crude in naira is a logical step that would ease the burden of foreign exchange, reduce costs, and enhance energy security. According to Idoko, halting the naira-for-crude initiative has already caused a surge in prices.
“The price of crude is going down internationally, yet refined petrol in Nigeria keeps climbing. That’s because of the FX situation and the influence of middlemen. Without addressing this imbalance, Nigerians won’t see the benefits of being Africa’s largest oil producer,” he said.
The naira-for-crude initiative, introduced by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) in October, aimed to supply crude to local refineries like Dangote’s using the naira, in a bid to stabilize domestic fuel prices. However, the deal, which promised 385,000 barrels per day, fell short, delivering only 280,000 bpd by March 10, according to S&P Global.
Now that the six-month deal has expired and is yet to be renewed, the Dangote refinery has halted fuel sales priced in naira, leading to renewed price hikes. Petrol now sells between N920 and N970 per litre, depending on location.
Idoko lamented that local refiners are being forced to source crude from foreign producers to stay operational. He called on the government to resist political interference in critical energy policies and prioritize long-term solutions like domestic refining and supportive fiscal frameworks.
“We invested in the midstream sector for the country’s development. Unfortunately, certain interests are politicizing what should be a straightforward path to energy stability,” he said. “The naira-for-crude deal was one of the most strategic moves by the current administration. We hope they have the foresight to sustain it.”
